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Technical Analysis (2014-04-24)

EUR/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.3855 Low: 1.3800 Close: 1.3816
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.3878
R-1:1.3847






Support
S-1:1.3792
S-2:1.3769




Forecast
High:1.3847
Low:1.3792





No change in EUR/USD's outlook. Consolidation from 1.3905 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Above 1.3905 will target 1.3966 resistance first. Break will extend larger rise from 1.2755 and target 100% projection of 1.3476 to 1.3966 from 1.3673 at 1.4163. Meanwhile, break of 1.3779 will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.3966 and would have a test on 1.3673 support before up trend resumption.


USD/JPY
Previous Day Range High: 102.69 Low: 102.17 Close: 102.45
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:102.96
R-1:102.71








Support
S-1:102.18
S-2:101.92




Forecast
High:102.71
Low:102.18









The recovery from 101.32 is starting to lose upside momentum. While further rise cannot be ruled out, we'd expect resistance below 104.12 to limit upside and bring another decline. Overall, the fall from 105.41 is expected to resume later and below 101.32 should send USD/JPY through 100.75 support to 100% projection of 105.41 to 100.75 from 104.12 at 99.46.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 75.56 is in form of a five way impulsive move with rise from 96.56 as the fifth leg. There is no confirmation of reversal yet but a medium term top should be near, if not formed. Decisive break of 100.61 support will argue that USD/JPY has already topped out in medium term at 105.41 and should bring deeper fall back to 38.2% retracement o 75.56 to 105.41 at 94.00. In case of another rise, we'll focus on reversal as it approaches 50% retracement of 147.68 to 75.56 at 111.62.

GBP/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.6836 Low: 1.6763 Close: 1.6780
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.6866
R-1:1.6823






Support
S-1:1.6750
S-2:1.6720




Forecast
High:1.6823
Low:1.6750





GBP/USD recovers strongly today but stays below 1.6841 temporary top so far and intraday bias remains neutral. Note again that near term outlook stays bullish as long as 1.6654 support holds. Above 1.6841 will extend the larger rise from 1.4813 to 1.7043 key resistance level next. However, break of 1.6654 will be an early sign of trend reversal and will turn focus back to 1.6465 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. Rise from 1.4813 is viewed as the third leg and is still in progress for 1.7043 and above. But we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside and bring reversal. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 1.6465 will argue that rise from 1.4813 is likely finished and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5853 support.



USD/CHF
Previous Day Range High: 0.8853 Low: 0.8808 Close: 0.8833
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.8876
R-1:0.8854






Support
S-1:0.8809
S-2:0.8786




Forecast
High:0.8854
Low:0.8809





Current development argues that consolidation pattern from 0.8698 is possibly still in progress. Rebound from 0.8472 could extend higher but based on current momentum, upside should be limited below 0.8952 and bring fall resumption finally. Overall, near term outlook stays bearish and fall from 0.9838 is expected to resume after completing the consolidation pattern from 0.8698. Below 0.8777 minor support will bring retest of 0.8698 low first.



AUD/USD
Previous Day Range High: 0.9377 Low: 0.9268 Close: 0.9284
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9419
R-1:0.9352









Support
S-1:0.9242
S-2:0.9200




Forecast
High:0.9352
Low:0.9242





The Australian dollar is higher by 0.4 percent this morning notching up some impressive gains when valued against its US counterpart overnight. Whilst the majority of markets re-opened following the extended Easter break there was only second tier data releases on hand overnight providing very little for investors to trade off. Having traded between a 24 range of 0.9322 – 0.9378 of critical importance today will be the release of the headline inflation number where is expected prices to have risen by 0.8 percent during the first three months of this year, a number which would tip the annual rate to 3.2 percent. Should the CPI reading exceed expectation it’s likely the Australian dollar will once again test highs up above the 94 US cents mark as markets begin to price in a change in monetary policy in response. Stronger this morning the Australian dollar currently buys 93.63 US Cents.

We expect a range today of 0.9320 – 0.9410.

USD/CAD
Previous Day Range High: 1.1053 Low: 1.1016 Close: 1.1032
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.1071
R-1:1.1051






Support
S-1:1.1014
S-2:1.0997




Forecast
High:1.1051
Low:1.1014





CAD is quiet today after the long weekend. The Loonie initially traded slightly higher on better than expected Wholesale Sales in February but has since given back all its gains. Main focus today will be on US March Existing Home Sales which is expected to drop by 0.7% due to winter weather and limited supply. This would be the slowest pace in 21 months and should put some pressure on the USD. We expect the USD/CAD to continue trading comfortably on around the 1.1000 area.

We expect a range today of 1.0990 to 1.1050.