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Technical Analysis (2014-10-31)

EUR/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.2639 Low: 1.2548 Close: 1.2608
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.2690
R-1:1.2649






Support
S-1:1.2558
S-2:1.2507



Forecast
High:1.2649
Low:1.2558









The break of 1.2613 minor support confirmed that rebound from 1.2500 has completed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.2500 first. Break will extend the larger fall from 1.3993 for 1.2042 low next. Above, 1.2770 minor resistance will extend the consolidation fro 1.2500 with another rise. But in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 1.2994 to limit upside and bring fall resumption eventually.
USD/JPY
Previous Day Range High: 109.46 Low: 108.75 Close: 109.26
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:109.87
R-1:109.57








Support
S-1:108.85
S-2:108.45




Forecast
High:109.57
Low:108.85









USD/JPY reaches as high as 109.34 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Rebound from 105.19 would target a test on 110.08 first. Break will extend the larger up trend to next long term fibonacci level at 111.62. On the downside, break of 107.60 support will argue that rebound from 105.19 has completed and will bring another fall to extend the consolidation from 110.08. In that case, we'd look for reversal around 61.8% retracement of 101.08 to 110.08 at 104.51.
GBP/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.6038 Low: 1.5951 Close: 1.5999
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.6083
R-1:1.6041






Support
S-1:1.5954
S-2:1.5909




Forecast
High:1.6041
Low:1.5954





Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for 1.5876 low. Break will extend the decline from 1.7190 and to 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721 next. In any case, near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1.6226 resistance holds and downside breakout is expected. However, break of 1.6226 will bring stronger rebound back towards 1.6523 resistance instead.
USD/CHF
Previous Day Range High: 0.9611 Low: 0.9543 Close: 0.9560
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9639
R-1:0.9600







Support
S-1:0.9532
S-2:0.9504




Forecast
High:0.9600
Low:0.9532







The break of 0.9559 minor resistance suggests that rebound form 0.9359 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 0.9688 high first. Break there will extend that larger rise from 0.8698 towards 0.9838/9971 key resistance zone. On the downside, below 0.9441 support will extend the correction fro 0.9668. But in that case, we'd continue to expect strong support inside 0.9300/9395 support zone to complete the correction and bring rebound.
AUD/USD
Previous Day Range High: 0.8840 Low: 0.8756 Close: 0.8830
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.8892
R-1:0.8861










Support
S-1:0.8777
S-2:0.8725




Forecast
High:0.8861
Low:0.8777





Following a tumultuous overnight session the Australian dollar settled considerably intraday yesterday trading sideways ahead of US and European entry. Despite its slow start the release of advanced US GDP which surpassed expectation spurred demand for the Australian dollar given signs of underlying weakness across household expenditure. Reaching highs of 0.8838 when valued against its US Counterpart there has been signs of solid support around the 0.8750 mark following Wednesday evenings aggressive selloff. With the two major risk events from the United States now behind us trading ranges should solidify ahead of a heightened domestic focus in anticipation of PPI numbers today as well as Chinese PMI numbers over the course of the weekend. Opening stronger this morning the Australian dollar currently buys 88.28 US Cents.

We expect a range today of 0.8780 – 0.8860.
USD/CAD
Previous Day Range High: 1.1223 Low: 1.1163 Close: 1.1195
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.1254
R-1:1.1224






Support
S-1:1.1165
S-2:1.1134




Forecast
High:1.1224
Low:1.1165





US Advance GDP for Q3 beat expectations of 3.1% at 3.5%. Initially the big currency gained across the board, but has since given back the gains as this number is largely in line with expectations and shows a decline from 4.6% in Q2. Janet Yellen is speaking at 9:00, however she is only making opening remarks and introductions and there will be no Q & A period to add more light on the Feds hawkish statement from yesterday. Canada has no domestic data today and will be left vulnerable to moves in the larger pairs throughout the day. The Loonie did give up all its gains from yesterday once the FOMC statement was released, but on the positive was a close below 1.1200 and overnight the market did not challenge the next level of resistance at 1.1247, above here there is little resistance to hold the pair back from 1.1385. 1.1125 to the downside held yesterday and will now act as support in the near term.

We expect a range today of 1.1130 to 1.1230.