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Technical Analysis (2014-09-01)

EUR/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.3196 Low: 1.3134 Close: 1.3139
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.3219
R-1:1.3279






Support
S-1:1.3117
S-2:1.3094



Forecast
High:1.3279
Low:1.3117





Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as the consolidation from 1.3152 temporary low continues. Another rise cannot be ruled out. But in that case, upside of recovery should be limited by 1.3332 support turned resistance and bring another decline. Bellow 1.3152 will extend the fall fro 1.3993 to 161.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.3502 from 1.3700 at 1.2906 next.
USD/JPY
Previous Day Range High: 104.11 Low: 103.66 Close: 104.06
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:104.39
R-1:104.23








Support
S-1:103.78
S-2:103.49




Forecast
High:104.91
Low:103.78









Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Note that 104.12 resistance could be strong enough to trigger reversal in the pair. Below 103.49 will turn bias back to the downside for 103.08 support and below. Above 104.27 will target 105.41 high next. Overall, we're still viewing USD/JPY as in consolidation pattern, either from 105.41 high or from 100.75 support .
GBP/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.6613 Low: 1.6563 Close: 1.6605
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.6644
R-1:1.6624






Support
S-1:1.6574
S-2:1.6544




Forecast
High:1.6624
Low:1.6574





Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as the consolidation from 1.6534 is still in progress. Another recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside is expected to be limited by 1.6737 resistance and bring fall resumption. The decline from 1.7190 medium term top is expected to extend lower. Below 1.6534 will target 1.6251 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6282).
USD/CHF
Previous Day Range High: 0.9184 Low: 0.9140 Close: 0.9177
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9212
R-1:0.9194






Support
S-1:0.9150
S-2:0.9122




Forecast
High:0.9194
Low:0.9150





EUR/CHF's decline continued last week and reached as low as 1.2048. There is no clear sign of bottoming yet even though the cross is losing downside momentum as seen in bullish convergence in 4 hours MACD. Further fall is still expected initially this week. But again, we're expecting strong support above SNB's 1.2 floor to contain downside and bring recovered. Break of 1.2115 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 1.2133/2177 resistance zone.
AUD/USD
Previous Day Range High: 0.9363 Low: 0.9333 Close: 0.9335
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9374
R-1:0.9355










Support
S-1:0.9324
S-2:0.9313




Forecast
High:0.9355
Low:0.9324





The Australian dollar opens this morning lower to start the week buying US93.24 cents after losing a quarter of a per cent on Friday. The Aussie began waiting on Private sector credit from the RBA and the numbers released just before midday disappointed. The figures were shown to increase less than anticipated however the market shrugged off the data. The losses took place overnight when strong US numbers coupled with continuing geopolitical concerns bolstered the US dollar. Looking at the week ahead Monday should be a slow start with a bank holiday in the USA however Tuesday the RBA will announce the cash rate which is widely expected by the majority of the market to be held.

We expect a range today of 0.9280 – 0.9360
USD/CAD
Previous Day Range High: 1.0875 Low: 1.0810 Close: 1.0873
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.0918
R-1:1.0895






Support
S-1:1.0830
S-2:1.0788




Forecast
High:1.0895
Low:1.0830





Canadian GDP which was just released was much stronger than anticipated with the Q2 Annualized rate at +3.1% versus expectations of +2.6%. The quarterly figure dropped from 0.4% to 0.3% when the market anticipated a drop to 0.2%. The annualized figure is the largest gain sinceQ3 2011 and the export sector led the way with a gain of +4.2%. USDCAD had sat in a range of 1.0845 to 1.0863 overnight and the initial reaction to the release was a move to 1.0830 (the Aug 27th low) without a break. We now sit at 1.0840 and it will be interesting if there is an appetite for the Loonie to challenge the 55 Day moving Average at 1.0811 as traders consolidate positions ahead of the NA long weekend.

We expect a range today of 1.0820 to 1.0895