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Technical Analysis (2015-04-17)

EUR/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.0818 Low: 1.0625 Close: 1.0758
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.0927
R-1:1.0842






Support
S-1:1.0649
S-2:1.0540




Forecast
High:1.0842
Low:1.0649










Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 1.0461 could extend with another rising leg. But in that case, outlook stays bearish as long as 1.1096 support turned resistance holds and downside breakout is expected. Below 1.0461 will extend larger down trend to next fibonacci level at 1.0283.
USD/JPY
Previous Day Range High: 119.47 Low: 118.80 Close: 119.10
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:119.80
R-1:119.45









Support
S-1:118.77
S-2:118.45




Forecast
High:119.45
Low:118.77









Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside at this point. The recovery from 118.32 has completed at 120.83. Fall from 122.01 is possible resuming for 118.32 and below. Overall, USD/JPY is staying in range and more sideway trading could be seen. We'd expect strong support from 115.55 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 105.19 to 121.84 at 115.47) to contain downside and bring rebound.
GBP/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.4970 Low: 1.4813 Close: 1.4926
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.5060
R-1:1.4993






Support
S-1:1.4836
S-2:1.4746




Forecast
High:1.4993
Low:1.4836





GBP/USD's rebound from 1.4565 extends higher today and stays below 1.4971 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 1.4971 intact, near term outlook stays bearish and another decline is expected. Below 1.4565 will extend the larger down trend. However, break of 1.4971 will suggest short term bottoming and would bring stronger rebound back towards 1.5551 resistance.
USD/CHF
Previous Day Range High: 0.9712 Low: 0.9541 Close: 0.9565
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9776
R-1:0.9671







Support
S-1:0.9500
S-2:0.9435



Forecast
High:0.9671
Low:0.9500







Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. Above 0.9862 will extend the rebound form 0.9471 to retest 1.0127 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.9471 will extend the correction from 1.0127 to a another low.
AUD/USD
Previous Day Range High: 0.7822 Low: 0.7673 Close: 0.7788
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.7910
R-1:0.7849










Support
S-1:0.7700
S-2:0.7612




Forecast
High:0.7849
Low:0.7700






The Australian dollar rallied strongly yesterday in response to a monthly employment report which showed some 37 500 new jobs were added to the labour pool during the month of March. Comfortably surpassing the anticipated number of 15 000, the latest result painted an overall positive picture of employment conditions with the official unemployment rate falling to 6.1 percent. Reaching an overnight high of 0.7822 when valued against its US Counterpart the Greenback has remained largely on the sidelines over the past 24 hours. Opening this morning more than a full cent stronger at a rate of 0.7802 recent profit taking moves suggest the Australian dollar’s upside from existing levels may well be limited.

We expect a range today of 0.7750 to 0.7850.
USD/CAD
Previous Day Range High: 1.2328 Low: 1.2143 Close: 1.2191
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.2405
R-1:1.2298






Support
S-1:1.2114
S-2:1.2036




Forecast
High:1.2298
Low:1.2114





Bank of Canada Gov. Poloz left rates on hold, citing positive growth trajectory in Canada as economic data begins to show improvement. Poloz and his colleagues estimate the weakness in data seen over Q1 is front loaded as a result of a slower US economy and seasonal effects of poor weather; the worst is over and green pastures are ahead. The BoC expects growth to be at 1.9% by year end with inflation tracking closer to its 2% target. The news drove CAD higher, eventually trading into the high 1.22’s. We expect this move to be short lived as the BoC prefers a weaker currency to drive growth in the manufacturing hubs of Central Canada.

We turn our attention to the U.S. as we have a slew of data and 3 Federal Reserve officials speaking which will have us separating the wheat from the chaff. Building permits, housing starts and the weekly jobless claims all printed worse than expected and now looking towards The Philly Fed Manufacturing data at 10am. Federal Reserve officials that are speaking are Lockhart, Mester, and Fisher. Lockhart and Mester both speak around 1pm followed by Fisher at 3pm. Fisher is having a press conference regarding how the Fed observes the current U.S. economy and the value of the USD. So his comments may outline a short-term positive or negative trend for the greenback.

We expect a range today of 1.2280 to 1.2410.