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Technical Analysis (2014-10-21)

EUR/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.2817 Low: 1.2732 Close: 1.2803
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.2869
R-1:1.2836






Support
S-1:1.2751
S-2:1.2698



Forecast
High:1.2836
Low:1.2751





The recovery from 1.2500 might extend higher. But we'd expect strong resistance from 1.2994 to limit upside and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2624 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Break of 1.2500 will extend the larger fall from 1.3993 for 1.2042 low next. Nonetheless, break of 1.2994 will bring lengthier consolidation above 1.2500 before staging another fall.


USD/JPY
Previous Day Range High: 107.39 Low: 106.78 Close: 106.87
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:107.62
R-1:107.24








Support
S-1:106.64
S-2:106.41




Forecast
High:107.24
Low:106.64









With 107.49 minor resistance intact, intraday bias stay's neutral first. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, we'd look for reversal sign below 61.8% retracement of 101.08 to 110.08 at 104.51. Meanwhile above 107.49 will argue that the pull back is completed and will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 110.08.
GBP/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.6179 Low: 1.6080 Close: 1.6167
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.6241
R-1:1.6204






Support
S-1:1.6105
S-2:1.6043




Forecast
High:1.6204
Low:1.6105





Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. As long as 1.6226 resistance holds, further fall is still expected. Below 1.5876 will extend the decline from 1.7190 and to 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721 next. Break will target 100% projections of 1.7190 to 1.6051 from 1.6523 at 1.5384. However, break of 1.6226 will bring stronger rebound back towards 1.6523 resistance instead.

USD/CHF
Previous Day Range High: 0.9480 Low: 0.9415 Close: 0.9423
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9504
R-1:0.9464







Support
S-1:0.9399
S-2:0.9375




Forecast
High:0.9464
Low:0.9399







No change in USD/CHF's outlook. We'd still expect strong support from from 0.9300/9395 support zone to complete the correction from 0.9688. Above 0.9561 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9688 first. However, break of 0.9300 will bring deeper fall back to 61.8% retracement at 0.9173.
AUD/USD
Previous Day Range High: 0.8801 Low: 0.8743 Close: 0.8788
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.8836
R-1:0.8812










Support
S-1:0.8754
S-2:0.8719




Forecast
High:0.8812
Low:0.8754





The Australian Dollar gained against its US counterpart throughout trade on Monday edging toward 0.88 as investors looked to higher yielding assets in the wake of an outward revision in the timing of Fed Rate hikes. FOMC member and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher dampened expectations further as he suggested he would maintain his “Hawkish” stance on rates but wanted “to be sensible” in light of current global growth prospects. With estimates of a Fed Rate hike as early as October 2015 now falling below 50% investors are again turning to the AUD as a viable carry trade option and we may be entering a new period of consolidation between 0.86 and 0.89. Attentions today turn to The RBA’s October Monetary Policy Meeting minutes and Chinese GDP reports for directional impetus.

We expect a range today between 0.8700 – 0.8850
USD/CAD
Previous Day Range High: 1.1293 Low: 1.1251 Close: 1.1283
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.1318
R-1:1.1300






Support
S-1:1.1258
S-2:1.1233




Forecast
High:1.1300
Low:1.1258





USDCAD continues to see CAD under pressure as oil prices hover above 80 pbl, the recent CPI data shows the BOC has plenty of room to remain neutral, and the declining outlook for global growth, all work to offset the positives for our economy. The positives that will help to keep CAD from major losses are; US recovery should be positive for Canadian economy; weaker Loonie will aid to increase this economic boost; as asset managers look for stable Triple A strong sovereigns Canada will get favourable attention. USDCAD resistance has come in at the 1.13 level while near term support is at last week’s low of 1.1211.

We expect a range today of 1.1215 to 1.1270