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Technical Analysis (2015-04-01)

EUR/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.0846 Low: 1.0713 Close: 1.0743
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.0899
R-1:1.0821






Support
S-1:1.0689
S-2:1.0635




Forecast
High:1.0821
Low:1.0689










The EUR/USD pair has been rather volatile for the month of March, testing the 1.10 handle for resistance eventually, but only after testing the 1.05 level for support. With the attached weekly chart, you can see that it does look like the sellers are coming back in as we formed a shooting star at the 1.10 level, and quite frankly this leads me to believe that this pair will head back down to the 1.05 handle. I think we break below there given enough time, but it might take a little bit of sideways action first in order to build up that type of momentum.

If we can get below the 1.05 handle, that should open the way to the parity level. That parity level should continue to be the target over the longer term, and that every time the market rallies we will more than likely have selling pressure. I have no interest whatsoever in buying this pair until we get above the 1.15 handle, something that I do not anticipate seeing anytime soon. In fact, I believe that the entire careers could be made of shorting the Euro for short-term trades here over the next several weeks.
USD/JPY
Previous Day Range High: 120.27 Low: 119.78 Close: 120.03
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:120.64
R-1:120.34









Support
S-1:119.75
S-2:119.47




Forecast
High:120.34
Low:119.75









Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. The consolidation pattern from 121.81 might still extend with risk of another fall. Below 118.32 will target lower end of recent range of 115.55/121.84. Again, we'd expect strong support from 115.55 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 105.19 to 121.84 at 115.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. The larger up trend is still expected to extend eventually and above 122.01 will target 124.13 resistance next.
GBP/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.4872 Low: 1.4756 Close: 1.4824
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.4933
R-1:1.4879






Support
S-1:1.4763
S-2:1.4701




Forecast
High:1.4879
Low:1.4763





Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. More consolidation could be seen above 1.4634 with risk of another recovery. But upside should be limited by 1.5551, 38.2% retracement of 1.7190 to 1.4634 at 1.5610, and bring down trend resumption. Below 1.4634 will extend the fall from 1.7190 towards 1.4229 support next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161 and should have completed at 1.7190. Fall from there should now target a new low below 1.3503 (2009 low). On the upside, break of 1.5551 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.
USD/CHF
Previous Day Range High: 0.9757 Low: 0.9657 Close: 0.9725
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9812
R-1:0.9768







Support
S-1:0.9669
S-2:0.9613



Forecast
High:0.9768
Low:0.9669







With USDCHF still facing recovery higher risk, a move higher could occur in the new (see daily chart) although closing lower the past week. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9550 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness to occur towards the 0.9500 level and then the 0.9450 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 0.9700 level with a breach targeting the 0.9750 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push higher towards the 0.9800 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term.

AUD/USD
Previous Day Range High: 0.7665 Low: 0.7591 Close: 0.7613
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.7969
R-1:0.7654










Support
S-1:0.7581
S-2:0.7550




Forecast
High:0.7654
Low:0.7581






AUDUSD reversed sharply to the downside last week from 0.7936 high with recent accelerating price trough the lower side of an upward channel. As such, we assume that correction is already done in fourth wave as current bearish move has impulsive qualities, so more weakness will be expected in days ahead, back to to the lows as we see big blue wave (5) in progress. In the meantime any bounce will be treated as just short-term correction within ongoing trend.
USD/CAD
Previous Day Range High: 1.2784 Low: 1.2653 Close: 1.2672
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.2843
R-1:1.2753






Support
S-1:1.2622
S-2:1.2571




Forecast
High:1.2753
Low:1.2622





While the rebound from 1.2410 was strong, USD/CAD is still held below 1.2834 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment and we could see more sideway consolidations. But again, with 1.2406 support intact, recent up trend is expected to resume later. Above 1.2834 will target 1.3063 key resistance. However, decisive break of 1.2406 will indicate trend reversal and in such case, deeper correction should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0620 to 1.2834 at 1.198.