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Technical Analysis (2016-12-02)

EUR/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.0669 Low: 1.0583 Close: 1.0659
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.0723
R-1:1.0691





Support
S-1:1.0605
S-2:1.0551



Forecast
High:1.0691
Low:1.0605





Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.0518 temporary low. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.1298 to 1.0518 at 1.0816 and bring fall resumption. Below 1.0518 will extend the decline from 1.1615 to 1.0461/0517 key support zone. We're slightly favoring the case that consolidation pattern from 1.0461 is completed and larger down trend is resuming. Decisive break of 1.0461 will confirm this bearish case.






USD/JPY
Previous Day Range High: 114.73 Low: 113.81 Close: 114.06
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:115.12
R-1:114.59






Support
S-1:113.67
S-2:113.28




Forecast
High:114.59
Low:113.67





USD/JPY recovers again today but stays below 113.89 temporary top. Intraday bias stays neutral and more consolidation would be seen. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 101.18 to 113.89 at 109.03 and bring rise resumption. Above 113.89 will target 61.8% retracement of 125.85 to 98.97 at 115.58. As noted before, rise from 98.97 could either be correcting the fall from 125.85 to 98.97, or resuming the longer term up trend. While we're still assessing the chance of each case, we'll be cautious on topping at around 115.58 first.






GBP/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.2695 Low: 1.2505 Close: 1.2588
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.2786
R-1:1.2687





Support
S-1:1.2497
S-2:1.2406



Forecast
High:1.2687
Low:1.2497







Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. At this point, we're favoring the case that corrective rise from 1.1946 is completed at 1.2673 already. And, the larger down trend is possibly resuming. Below 1.2301 will target a test on 1.1946 low first. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 1.3444 to 1.1946 from 1.2673 at 1.1747 next. Nonetheless, break of 1.2673 will extend the correction from 1.1946 with another rise.






USD/CHF
Previous Day Range High: 1.0174 Low: 1.0101 Close: 1.0108
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.0201
R-1:1.0154





Support
S-1:1.0081
S-2:1.0055



Forecast
High:1.0154
Low:1.0081





Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidation below 1.0190 temporary top. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9548 to 1.0190 at 0.9945 and bring rally resumption. Above 1.0190 will extend the rebound from 0.9443 to retest 1.0327 high. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend.





AUD/USD
Previous Day Range High: 0.7421 Low: 0.7369 Close: 0.7413
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.7453
R-1:0.7433





Support
S-1:0.7381
S-2:0.7349



Forecast
High:0.7433
Low:0.7381





The Australian dollar paused for a break yesterday having rallied the week prior following an increase in commodity prices. The local unit traded between 0.7435 and 0.7490, a near-term resistance level. Private New Home Sales fell 8.5% in October according to the Housing Industry Association, this was the lowest level of sales since July 2014 but down on 4.9% this time last year. The data did very little to the currency and so the Aussie took most of its direction from offshore data released from the worlds largest economy. Third-quarter GDP data reported a strong reading alongside U.S Consumer Confidence Index reporting a rise this month versus the previous month. The upbeat data does add optimism over the outlook for the U.S economy and for the Federal Reserve to move next month on an interest rate hike. The Aussie has fared well elsewhere, rising against the JPY to stay near a 7-month high whilst political risk have kept AUD/EUR in check. Today we see the release of Building Approvals and Private Sector Credit.





USD/CAD
Previous Day Range High: 1.3444 Low: 1.3301 Close: 1.3308
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.3494
R-1:1.3401





Support
S-1:1.3258
S-2:1.3208



Forecast
High:1.3401
Low:1.3258





Canadian Current Account Q/Q forecasted at -16.8B printed at -18.3, which was worse than expected. From the US we have GDP Price Index at 1.4%, which printed in line with expectations, while Annualized GDP sighted at 3.2%, which was slightly better than the forecasts of 3%. With a US Fed rate hike looking like a certainty in December, the speeches from two FOMC members Dudley at 9:15 am and Powell at 12:40 pm will be actively monitored for further insight on outlook. Crude oil futures are down 3% to 45.89 a barrel with a 30% chance of OPEC agreeing on production cuts by the end of meetings tomorrow. UBS wealth management arm, which has 2 trillion dollars under management, released a note saying that traders have the Trump trade all wrong and that "the fiscal expectations are overblown." Their call is for the Yen to strengthen against the US dollar to 98 yen for one dollar, the dollar/yen is trading at 113 this morning. In Governor Poloz''s interview yesterday with Bloomberg, Poloz said it is too soon to fully factor in US president-elect policy into the BOC rate decision next week. JS

We expect a range today of 1.3422 to 1.3516