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Technical Analysis (2014-11-28)

EUR/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.2524 Low: 1.2465 Close: 1.2473
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.2546
R-1:1.2509






Support
S-1:1.2451
S-2:1.2429



Forecast
High:1.2509
Low:1.2451









Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. More consolidation could be seen. But with 1.2613 resistance intact, deeper decline is expected. Below 1.2357 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3700 to 1.2500 from 1.2886 at 1.2144. However, break of 1.2613 will indicate short term bottoming with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, strong rebound should be seen to 1.2886 resistance.
USD/JPY
Previous Day Range High: 117.88 Low: 117.24 Close: 117.71
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:118.25
R-1:117.98








Support
S-1:117.34
S-2:116.97




Forecast
High:117.98
Low:117.34









As noted before, USD/JPY is close to 120 key cluster level around 120. That includes 161.8% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 119.75 and long term fibonacci level at 120.13. Also, bearish divergence condition is also seen in 4 hours MACD. Risk of near term topping is rather high. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment. Below 117.05 will confirm short term topping and bring pull back to 113.85 support.
GBP/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.5826 Low: 1.5717 Close: 1.5728
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.5866
R-1:1.5797






Support
S-1:1.5688
S-2:1.5648




Forecast
High:1.5797
Low:1.5688





A short term bottom is likely formed at 1.5589 on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further recovery would be seen to 55 days EMA (now at 1.6025). But we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.7190 to 1.5589 at 1.6201 to limit upside. Break of 1.5589 will extend the decline from 1.7190.
USD/CHF
Previous Day Range High: 0.9644 Low: 0.9599 Close: 0.9633
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9669
R-1:0.9651







Support
S-1:0.9607
S-2:0.9581




Forecast
High:0.9651
Low:0.9607







Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. The consolidation from 0.9741 might still extend. Below 0.9529 will bring deeper pull back. But in that case, we'd expect strong support from 0.9359 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8702 to 0.9741 at 0.9344) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9741 will confirm resumption of rise from 0.8698 and target 0.9971 key resistance next.
AUD/USD
Previous Day Range High: 0.8615 Low: 0.8530 Close: 0.8545
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.8649
R-1:0.8597










Support
S-1:0.8512
S-2:0.8478




Forecast
High:0.8597
Low:0.8512





Recovering off dropping to 4 year lows on Wednesday night the Australian dollar rebounded on Thursday taking the lead from domestic and offshore data. Underpinned by the large Greenback sell off the night prior Aussie began trade drifting higher as investors sat patiently waiting on domestic private capital expenditure numbers. The data showed a 0.2 per cent uptake and the Aussie strengthened further. Overnight the AUD’s momentum slowed due to lack of market data opening this morning just below Thursdays open at 0.8547. Heading into the weekend onlookers are expecting trade to be subdued with Thanksgiving in the US and will look to local private sector credit for direction.

We expect a range today of 0.8505 – 0.8585.
USD/CAD
Previous Day Range High: 1.1355 Low: 1.1234 Close: 1.1340
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.1430
R-1:1.1385






Support
S-1:1.1265
S-2:1.1289




Forecast
High:1.1385
Low:1.1265





With US Thanksgiving today North American markets will be quite thin once the European session ends, leaving us with the potential for some erratic movement on any surprises the rest of the day. The OPEC announcement regarding production will be at 10:00 AM EST today. Consensus has built over the last 48 hours that there will not be a cut as Saudi Arabia wishes to continue to test how low we can go in an attempt to pressure the Shale oil production coming on line in the US. The market reaction still could be a coin toss on this announcement as it is hard to know how priced in this is in energy markets. Without a doubt this should weigh on the Loonie, however the positive that could offset some of the pressure is oil sands producers confirming they can continue to be profitable at $40 to $60 pbl oil. Canadian current account data improved from -9.9B to -8.4B when the market anticipated a -10.3B reading, causing USDCAD to attempt a break of 1.1230 again.

We expect a range today of 1.1210 to 1.1300.