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Technical Analysis (2014-07-31)

EUR/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.3415 Low: 1.3367 Close: 1.3393
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.3440
R-1:1.3417






Support
S-1:1.3368
S-2:1.3344
Forecast
High:1.3417
Low:1.3368





EUR/USD's fall accelerates to as low as 1.3369 in early US session and break mentioned 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.3502 from 1.3700 at 1.3397 target. Intraday bias is remains on the downside. Current fall should now target 100% projection at 1.3209 next. On the upside, above 1.3415 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 1.3502 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.
USD/JPY
Previous Day Range High: 103.09 Low: 102.04 Close: 102.83
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:103.70
R-1:103.26








Support
S-1:102.22
S-2:101.60




Forecast
High:103.26
Low:102.22









USD/JPY rises strongly to as high as 102.69 so far in early US session. The strong break of 102.26 resistance confirmed that choppy fall from 102.79 is finished. And, the rebound form 100.82 is likely resuming. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 102.79 first. Break will target 100% projection of 100.82 to 102.79 from 101.06 at 103.03 and above. Nonetheless, as the pair is still bounded in the sideway pattern from 100.75, we'd be cautious on strong resistance below 104.12 to limit upside. On the downside, below 102.20 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another rise.
GBP/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.6955 Low: 1.6890 Close: 1.6917
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.6986
R-1:1.6951






Support
S-1:1.6886
S-2:1.6856




Forecast
High:1.6951
Low:1.6886





GBP/USD's fall accelerates to as low as 1.6894 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside. A medium term top could be formed at 1.7190 already and the trend is reversing. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.6692 key support level for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.6954 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will stay cautiously bearish as long as 1.7058 resistance holds.
USD/CHF
Previous Day Range High: 0.9106 Low: 0.9066 Close: 0.9087
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9127
R-1:0.9107






Support
S-1:0.9067
S-2:0.9046




Forecast
High:0.9107Low:0.9067






USD/CHF's rally accelerates to as high as 0.9100 so far in early US session. The rise from 0.8698 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 0.9156 key resistance next. Break will indicate medium term reversal. On the downside, below 0.9064 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another rally.
AUD/USD
Previous Day Range High: 0.9388 Low: 0.9304 Close: 0.9328
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9424
R-1:0.9376










Support
S-1:0.9292
S-2:0.9255




Forecast
High:0.9376
Low:0.9292





The Australian dollar opens lower this morning as strong US data triggered a Greenback rally. The Aussie maintained a tight trading range for much of yesterday’s Australasian session as markets held positions reluctant to move ahead of key US risk events. Gross Domestic Product figures revealed the world largest economy grew 4% in the 2nd quarter and the AUD was driven immediately lower only pared by a dovish Federal Reserve statement. Having touched an intraday low of 0.9302 the Aussie opens markedly lower this morning trading at 0.9329 with attentions now turning to Building Approvals as the big ticket domestic item ahead of US Non-Farm Payroll numbers Friday as the drivers of direction into the weekend.

We expect a range today between 0.9260 – 0.9400.
USD/CAD
Previous Day Range High: 1.0917 Low: 1.0848 Close: 1.0899
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.0957
R-1:1.0928






Support
S-1:1.0859
S-2:1.0819




Forecast
High:1.0928
Low:1.0859





The USD has continued to be favoured overnight as market participants anticipate a change in tone from the FOMC today as well as the continued rising geopolitical tensions. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came in below expectations of 234K at 218K, while Q2 GDP was much better than the anticipated 3.1% at 4.0%. The USD has gained further against all the G10, picking up roughly 30 bps against all the majors. The optimism surrounding this number will be contained this morning as we await the FOMC, from there we should continue to see the Greenback favoured as this positive reading will be difficult to discount.

We expect a range today of 1.0830 to 1.0900.