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Technical Analysis (2014-09-19)

EUR/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.2930 Low: 1.2834 Close: 1.2921
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.2991
R-1:1.2956






Support
S-1:1.2860
S-2:1.2799



Forecast
High:1.2956
Low:1.2860





The EUR/USD is trading higher at the mid-session. Early session weakness took out the previous bottom at 1.2859, reaffirming the downtrend. However, the lack of follow-through to the downside triggered an intraday reversal, setting up the Forex pair for a possible daily closing price reversal bottom on the daily chart.

The main trend is down on the daily chart, however, a new short-term range may be forming between 1.2994 and 1.2834. The retracement zone formed by this range at 1.2914 to 1.2933 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone will set the tone the rest of the session.
USD/JPY
Previous Day Range High: 108.96 Low: 108.38 Close: 108.72
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:109.27
R-1:109.00








Support
S-1:108.41
S-2:108.10




Forecast
High:109.27
Low:108.41









USD/JPY reaches as high as 108.95 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally should now extend to 100% projection of 96.56 to 105.43 from 101.08 at 109.95 next. Break there will pave the way to long term fibonacci level at 111.62. On the downside, break of 106.80 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term up trend from 75.56 is still in progress.
GBP/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.6409 Low: 1.6247 Close: 1.6370
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.6504
R-1:1.6437






Support
S-1:1.6275
S-2:1.6180




Forecast
High:1.6336
Low:1.6227





The recovery from 1.6051 is still in progress but outlook in GBP/USD is unchanged. While further rise cannot be ruled out, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.6534 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.6161 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6051 first. Break will extend the decline from 1.7190 through 50% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6002 to 61.8% retracement at 1.5721.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161.
USD/CHF
Previous Day Range High: 0.9433 Low: 0.9335 Close: 0.9339
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9467
R-1:0.9403







Support
S-1:0.9305
S-2:0.9271




Forecast
High:0.9403
Low:0.9305







Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for the momentum. Current rise is expected to extend to 261.8% projection of 0.8702 to 0.9036 from 0.8855 at 0.9729 next. On the downside, break of 0.9300 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9971 are viewed as a medium term correction pattern and should have completed with three waves down to 0.8698.
AUD/USD
Previous Day Range High: 0.8997 Low: 0.8928 Close: 0.8981
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9038
R-1:0.9009










Support
S-1:0.8940
S-2:0.8900




Forecast
High:0.9009
Low:0.8940





The Australian dollar began Tuesday over a cent lower in the mid US89 cent range after succumbing to Greenback strength the previous night. During Asian trade, lack of data and the impending overnight US figures kept the AUD moving sideways. Mixed releases overnight saw the higher yielding currency climb a quarter of a per cent verse the US however the Aussie lost heavily against the Sterling after Scotland began to look more likely to remain part of the UK. Heading into the weekend the markets should begin to stabilise after a fairly volatile week and with no data locally the Aussie will look offshore for direction. The AUD opens this morning marginally stronger at 89.88 US cents.

We expect a range today of 0.8950 – 0.9030.
USD/CAD
Previous Day Range High: 1.1024 Low: 1.0929 Close: 1.0942
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.1060
R-1:1.1001






Support
S-1:1.0906
S-2:1.0870




Forecast
High:1.1001
Low:1.0906





The USD continues to hold on to strength following yesterday’s FOMC meeting where Yellen and Co. left the statement largely unchanged and emphasized that moves going forward will be data dependent. The market still appears to want to be long USD and it will be interesting to see the light this week’s CFTC data sheds on currency positions. USDCAD has remained within its range if the last few days and the focus now turns to tomorrow’s CAD CPI and Wholesale sales tomorrow AM, while continuing to be susceptible to volatility from the Scottish vote. A prerecorded speech from Janet Yellen is out this morning on "The Importance of Asset Building for Low and Middle Income Households", which will have very little to do with monetary policy. US weekly Unemployment claims dropped back below 300K to 280K which should be a positive for the rebound in employment everyone is looking for in September.

We expect a range today of 1.0940 to 1.1030.