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Technical Analysis (2014-04-17)

EUR/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.3851 Low: 1.3804 Close: 1.3812
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.3870
R-1:1.3841






Support
S-1:1.3794
S-2:1.3775




Forecast
High:1.3841
Low:1.3794





Intraday bias in EUR?USD stays neutral as the consolidation from 1.3905 temporary top continues. We'd holding on to the bullish view that rise from 1.3673 is resuming the larger rally from 1.2755. Above 1.3905 will target 1.3966 first. Break will target 100% projection of 1.3476 to 1.3966 from 1.3673 at 1.4163. However, break of 1.3779 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3673 support instead.
USD/JPY
Previous Day Range High: 102.37 Low: 101.81 Close: 102.24
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:102.69
R-1:102.47








Support
S-1:101.91
S-2:101.59




Forecast
High:102.47
Low:101.91









Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside as the recovery from 101.32 could extend higher to 55 days EMA (now at 102.42) and above. But we'd expect strong resistance below 104.12 to limit upside and bring another decline. Overall, the fall from 105.41 is expected to resume later and below 101.32 should send USD/JPY through 100.75 support to 100% projection of 105.41 to 100.75 from 104.12 at 99.46.
GBP/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.6818 Low: 1.6720 Close: 1.6792
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.6875
R-1:1.6833






Support
S-1:1.6735
S-2:1.6679




Forecast
High:1.6833
Low:1.6735





GBP/USD's strong rebound suggests that pull back from 1.6819 has completed at 1.6654 and intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for 1.6822 resistance. Break will confirm resumption of whole rise from 1.4813 and should target 1.7043 key resistance level next. Nonetheless, below 1.6712 minor support will mix up the outlook again and turn bias neutral.
USD/CHF
Previous Day Range High: 0.8829 Low: 0.8792 Close: 0.8820
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.8858
R-1:0.8839






Support
S-1:0.8792
S-2:0.8763




Forecast
High:0.8839
Low:0.8792





Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.8742 continues. Upside of the recovery is expected to be limited by 0.8845 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Current development suggests that whole decline from 0.9838 is possibly resuming. Below 0.8742 will target 0.8698 low first. Break will target 61.8% projection of 0.9156 to 0.8698 from 0.8952 at 0.8668 next. However, above 0.8845 will dampen this bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for 0.8952 resistance instead.
AUD/USD
Previous Day Range High: 0.9388 Low: 0.9333 Close: 0.9371
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9419
R-1:0.9395









Support
S-1:0.9340
S-2:0.9309




Forecast
High:0.9395
Low:0.9340





The Australian dollar began the day trailing downwards after strong US data the night before had already weakened the higher yielding currency. The Melbourne Institute released the leading index early on in Asian trade however the data had a muted effect which is not uncommon due to most of the indicators being used for previously calculations. As the day continued the AUD drifted higher than the open price against the Greenback as investors waited eagerly on Chinese data that was to be released at midday. The Chinese figures helped the AUD bounce to 0.9369 which was a daily high after the first quarter GDP was recorded slightly ahead of forecast at 7.4 per cent. Overnight the Australian dollar rallied on the back of USD weakness after US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen indicated that interest rates in the US would remain low for a significant time. Today the Aussie dollar opens marginally stronger against the US dollar at 0.9376. All eyes will now turn to the local NAB Quarterly business confidence and new motor vehicle sales however the main event will be Philly Fed Manufacturing index and Unemployment claims out of the US overnight.

We expect a range today of 0.9330 – 0.9405.
USD/CAD
Previous Day Range High: 1.1034 Low: 1.0961 Close: 1.1015
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.1076
R-1:1.1046






Support
S-1:1.0973
S-2:1.0930




Forecast
High:1.1046
Low:1.0973





CAD is soft this morning, trading slightly lower from yesterday’s close as the market waits for the BoC rate statement and press conference later this morning. The BoC is expected to leave rates unchanged and maintain a neutral stance as any change in policy still dependent on new information and any shifts in risks. Despite the strength in recent domestic data, the BoC will be cautious not to sound too optimistic for the fear of appreciating the CAD.

We expect a range today of 1.0950 to 1.1050.