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Technical Analysis (2015-03-04)

EUR/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.1218 Low: 1.1154 Close: 1.1173
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.1245
R-1:1.1209






Support
S-1:1.1146
S-2:1.1118




Forecast
High:1.1209
Low:1.1146










Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains cautiously on the downside for 1.1096. Consolidation pattern from there is likely finished and break of 1.1096 will extend recent down trend to next fibonacci level at 1.0283. Above 1.1379 will dampen this bearish case and bring another recovery. But in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 1.1678 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption eventually.
USD/JPY
Previous Day Range High: 120.27 Low: 119.38 Close: 119.74
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:120.68
R-1:120.21









Support
S-1:119.32
S-2:118.91




Forecast
High:120.21
Low:119.32









Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral. Overall, the pair is staying in the sideway consolidation pattern from 121.84. On the downside, below 188.22 will bring another fall. But decline attempt should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 105.19 to 121.84 at 115.47 and rebound. Above 120.46 will target resistance at 121.84. But break of 121.84 is needed to confirm larger up trend resumption.
GBP/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.5398 Low: 1.5345 Close: 1.5361
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.5421
R-1:1.5391






Support
S-1:1.5338
S-2:1.5315




Forecast
High:1.5391
Low:1.5338





Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. At this point, rise from 1.4950 is viewed as a corrective move and break of 1.5315 will indicate that it's completed. In such case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.4950 first. However, sustained break of 1.5540/51 (38.2% retracement of 1.6523 to 1.4950 at 1.5551) will argue that whole fall from 1.7190 is completed at 1.4950. And rise from there could target 1.5785 resistance next.
USD/CHF
Previous Day Range High: 0.9618 Low: 0.9559 Close: 0.9616
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9657
R-1:0.9636







Support
S-1:0.9577
S-2:0.9538



Forecast
High:0.9636
Low:0.9577







The US Dollar advanced for a fourth consecutive session against the Swiss Franc, moving to the highest level in six weeks. Near-term resistance is at 0.9662, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 0.9843. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 0.9551 clears the way for a challenge of trend line support at 0.9468.
AUD/USD
Previous Day Range High: 0.7845 Low: 0.7752 Close: 0.7817
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.7897
R-1:0.7857










Support
S-1:0.7764
S-2:0.7712




Forecast
High:0.7857
Low:0.7764






In a move that surprised many investors and analysts the RBA opted to maintain its benchmark cash rate at 2.25% yesterday. Speculators had priced in a rate cut in the wake of last week’s dismal Capex report and an evident shift to an easing bias. With traders left scrambling to cover their short positions the move prompted an immediate response as markets forced the AUD back through 0.78 US cents touching intraday highs of 0.7844. The upward rally again met resistance on approaches to 0.7850 as the RBA rate statement was absorbed. Governor Stevens suggested that while it was prudent to leave rates unchanged the policy committee will assess conditions on a meeting to meeting basis where further easing may be appropriate. Despite concerns surrounding a housing bubble (particularly in Sydney) below trend growth, rising unemployment and softening labour market conditions certainly leave room and scope for an April or May rate adjustment especially whilst the AUD remains stubbornly above estimates of its fundamental value. Attentions today turn to a 4th Quarter GDP report, with expectations for a soft read and slowdown in annualised growth to 2.5% priced in.

We expect a range today of 0.7620 – 0.7920.
USD/CAD
Previous Day Range High: 1.2543 Low: 1.2432 Close: 1.2489
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.2599
R-1:1.2544






Support
S-1:1.2433
S-2:1.2377




Forecast
High:1.2544
Low:1.2433





The Loonie is trading higher today after Canadian Q4 GDP came in better than expected. Focus will be on Tomorrow’s BoC rate statement at 10:00 am EST. The BoC is expected to hold rates unchanged at 0.75%.

We expect a range today of 1.2400 to 1.2518.