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Technical Analysis (2014-11-24)

EUR/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.2568 Low: 1.2375 Close: 1.2389
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.2637
R-1:1.2513






Support
S-1:1.2320
S-2:1.2251



Forecast
High:1.2513
Low:1.2320









EUR/USD recovered to 1.2599 last week but reversed from there and dropped sharply to close. After all, it's staying in range above 1.2357. Initial bias remains neutral this week and more consolidation could be seen. And, with 1.2613 resistance intact, deeper decline is expected. Below 1.2357 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3700 to 1.2500 from 1.2886 at 1.2144. However, break of 1.2613 will indicate short term bottoming with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, strong rebound should be seen to 1.2886 resistance.
USD/JPY
Previous Day Range High: 118.37 Low: 117.36 Close: 117.76
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:118.84
R-1:118.30








Support
S-1:117.29
S-2:116.82




Forecast
High:118.30
Low:117.29









USD/JPY surged to as high as 118.97 last week but lost momentum ahead of key resistance zone around 120. That includes 161.8% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 119.75 and long term fibonacci level at 120.13. Bearish divergence condition is also seen in 4 hours MACD. Risk of near term topping is rather high. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Break of 117.05 will confirm short term topping and bring pull back to 113.85 support.
GBP/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.5714 Low: 1.5626 Close: 1.5651
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.5752
R-1:1.5701






Support
S-1:1.5613
S-2:1.5576




Forecast
High:1.5701
Low:1.5613





GBP/USD lost much downside momentum last week and turned into sideway trading. But with 1.5789 resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected in the pair. Current fall from 1.7190 should target 100% projection of 1.7190 to 1.6051 from 1.6523 at 1.5384 next. Nonetheless, break of 1.5789 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 1.5944 and above.
USD/CHF
Previous Day Range High: 0.9709 Low: 0.9564 Close: 0.9697
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9802
R-1:0.9749







Support
S-1:0.9604
S-2:0.9511




Forecast
High:0.9749
Low:0.9604







USD/CHF rebounded strongly after dipping to 0.9529 but was kept below 0.9741 resistance last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first as the consolidation from 0.9741 might extend. Below 0.9529 will bring deeper pull back. But in that case, we'd expect strong support from 0.9359 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8702 to 0.9741 at 0.9344) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9741 will confirm resumption of rise from 0.8698 and target 0.9971 key resistance next.
AUD/USD
Previous Day Range High: 0.8722 Low: 0.8606 Close: 0.8667
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.8782
R-1:0.8724










Support
S-1:0.8608
S-2:0.8549




Forecast
High:0.8724
Low:0.8608





The Australian dollar ended the week stronger against the Greenback on Friday as China reduced rates for the first time since 2012. In an unexpected move the world’s second largest economy and Australia’s largest trading partner lowered the cash rate after the powerhouse nation was due to record its weakest annual growth in nearly 25 years. The move to aggressive monetary easing saw the Australian dollar rally fast climbing nearly a percent as global stock and commodity prices jumped higher. Falling iron ore prices have been a concern for onlookers as the recent sharp drop has hurt the Australian dollar and put a drag on future prospects of economic growth. This morning the AUD opens stronger against the US dollar at 0.8669 and with no data locally for direction investors will look offshore for guidance.

We expect a range today of 0.8630 – 0.8710.
USD/CAD
Previous Day Range High: 1.1326 Low: 1.1192 Close: 1.1233
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.1385
R-1:1.1309






Support
S-1:1.1174
S-2:1.1116




Forecast
High:1.1309
Low:1.1174





The positive news for the Loonie continued at 8:30 when CPI beat expectations increasing to +0.1% when a -0.1% reading was anticipated. The core figure was +0.3% against expected +0.2%. The yearly figures moved to 1.8% headline and 2.3% core. Loonie picked up an additional 50 bps on this news and challenged the 1.12 level, yet was not able to break as the market know this release will not be enough to garner a change in outlook for the Bank of Canada.

We expect a range today of 1.1190 to 1.1290.