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Technical Analysis (2015-07-06)

EUR/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.1120 Low: 1.1065 Close: 1.1077
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.1142
R-1:1.1110



Support
S-1:1.1055
S-2:1.1033



Forecast
High:1.1110
Low:1.1055



Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. At this point, we're favoring the case that corrective rebound from 1.0461 has completed at 1.1466 already. Another fall is expected and below 1.0954 will target 1.0818 support for confirmation. Break of 1.1436 will extend such rebound but in that case, strong resistance should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810 to bring reversal.
USD/JPY
Previous Day Range High: 123.18 Low: 122.60 Close: 122.81
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:123.45
R-1:123.13



Support
S-1:122.55
S-2:122.29



Forecast
High:123.13
Low:122.55



USD/JPY retreats mildly in early US session and intraday bias remains neutral first. Fall from 125.85 is viewed as a correction and might have completed at 121.93. Break of 124.43 will suggest that the larger up trend might be resuming and would target a test on 125.85 first. Nonetheless, below 121.93 will extend the fall correction to 61.8% retracement of 118.88 to 125.85 at 121.54.
GBP/USD
Previous Day Range High: 1.5644 Low: 1.5563 Close: 1.5572
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.5674
R-1:1.5623



Support
S-1:1.5542
S-2:1.5512



Forecast
High:1.5623
Low:1.5542



Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside as the fall from 1.5929 continues. As noted before, we're slightly favoring that rise from 1.4565 is finished at 1.5929 after missing 61.8% projection of 1.4565 to 1.5814 from 1.5169. Focus is now on 1.5169 support for confirmation. Nonetheless, above 1.5788 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 1.5929 resistance instead.
USD/CHF
Previous Day Range High: 0.9442 Low: 0.9400 Close: 0.9423
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.9464
R-1:0.9443



Support
S-1:0.9401
S-2:0.9379



Forecast
High:0.9443
Low:0.9401



Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for 0.9542 resistance. Break there will resume the rise from 0.9072. More importantly, this will revive the case that down trend from 1.0127 has completed at 0.9072 and bring stronger rally. On the downside, below 0.9242 will turn focus back to 0.9072/9150 support zone instead.
AUD/USD
Previous Day Range High: 0.7649 Low: 0.7510 Close: 0.7517
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:0.7697
R-1:0.7607



Support
S-1:0.7468
S-2:0.7419



Forecast
High:0.7607
Low:0.7468



The Australian dollar offered little through domestic trade as softer commodity prices and the Greek credit crunch weakened risk appetite. Struggling to break above 0.7650 the AUD was forced downward as the monthly trade balance report failed to meet market expectations. Slipping lower the Aussie found support on moves toward 0.7580/90 and was bolstered by weaker than anticipated US employment data edging back through the 0.76 handle to open this morning buying 0.7630 U.S cents. With market focus primarily on the ever unfolding Greek debt saga domestic retail sales will offer some macroeconomic distraction, however we expect investors to be somewhat hesitant given the weekends significant risk event. Watch the AUD remain range bound into the weekly close with weighty market movements expected on open Monday.

We expect a range today of 0.7580 – 0.7730.
USD/CAD
Previous Day Range High: 1.2603 Low: 1.2540 Close: 1.2578
Technical Chart Resistance
R-2:1.2636
R-1:1.2607



Support
S-1:1.2544
S-2:1.2511



Forecast
High:1.2607
Low:1.2544



The US posted a drop in June’s unemployment rate to 5.3%, but Non-farm payrolls printed worse than expected at 223K in June. The USD erased most of its earlier gains as it did make a 2.5 month high of 1.2633. As the FED has stated, labour metrics will be looked at very closely and weighted heavily when determining rate hike expectations and today’s data has just dampened that expectation. In Canada, Canadian Manufacturing PMI printed at 51.3. The USDCAD is currently trading at 1.2588.

We expect a range today of 1.2558 to 1.2633.